In the second part of his U.S. Masters Preview, our Michael C. Fricke explains why Geoff Ogilvy will be the man to beat in Augusta and that Phil Mickelson’s rollercoaster season might well continue with a second green jacket.

With the factors mentioned

Your Ad Here

in part I of my masters preview in mind who stands out? While Tiger and Phil will always represent 80% of the crowd and 90% of the press, in my mind the man to watch this week is Geoff Ogilvy. He is currently #1 in putts per GIR (through the Shell Houston Open) and has the kind of flight trajectory needed to hold the hard, fast Augusta putting surfaces. He has enjoyed success in the majors, albeit at Phil Mickelson’s expense. He has been hot to white-hot all season. And he shows absolutely no signs of letting up.

The “Paddy Slam” stays alive, but appears to be on life support. Padraig Harrington has only three top 25’s in 7 events played on the PGA Tour this year. The off-season layoff seems to have derailed any momentum he carried over from last year. Take out the slam reference, and you can almost repeat the above when it comes to Sergio Garcia. Four PGA tournaments played, best result a tie for 13th at the Honda. Note the fine print in this paragraph however, either can win, and it would surprise very few people should that happen. Dito Ernie Els and Vijay Singh (although either of these may still raise an eyebrow).

Others to watch with a chance to win: K.J. Choi has enjoyed success at Augusta and has publicly stated his desire to win here. He will need to improve upon his 2009 Y-T-D however. Kenny Perry, Justin Leonard, and Lee Westwood are a few others to keep an eye on. Nick Watney and Fred Couples deserve the “I wouldn’t be shocked if they win” tag. Especially Nick Watney: Over ten events this year, he was 3 times in the top 10, and 7 times in the top 25. He won this year at the Buick and gave Phil all he wanted and then some at the WGC-CA Championship. He is a player whose stock is rising fast and looks to be a major factor for years to come.

Others to watch who probably aren’t ready for prime time just yet: Danny Lee, the 2008 US Amateur Champion and winner of the 2009 Johnnie Walker Classic, Rory McIlroy and Ryo Ishikawa.

With apologies to those I haven’t mentioned (Villegas, Furyk and many more) that leaves Tiger and Phil to consider. Tiger reminded us that he is still the man last week at Arnie’s tournament. Granted, Sean O’Hair deserves a bit of the credit for his win. Tiger has shown improvement in each of his 3 outings, culminating in his first victory since the 08’ Open. While it will surprise no one should he be on top of the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon, I still believe there are some question marks. But he loves the track, has the swing, and possesses all the intangibles that make him an odds-on favorite to claim another green jacket. Tiger doesn’t enjoy pressure, he thrives on it. Many great players have wilted under his pressure, not only the pressure of his game, but the pressure of his name. Want an anxiety attack? Have Tiger 3 strokes back with 3 to play.

And what of Phil? What are we to make of his woeful performance in Houston? Phil followed three less-than-stellar appearances with a win at Rivera in the Northern Trust Open. His victory at the WGC-CA Championship followed a forgettable World Match Play and a week off. In short, who knows what we are going to get this week. But do we ever? I suspect Phil will be in contention all the way. Phil is a notoriously good fast-green putter. His short game has been brilliant at times this year, above average the rest of the time. If he can limit his wayward drives, tighten up his wedge game, and not win the Par-3 contest, there is no reason a green jacket in a 43 long shouldn’t be held close by.